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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2022-07-21T15:53Z
Model Inputs: 2022-07-21T01:25:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-51.0, Lat.=-25.0, Speed=1479.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2022-07-21T02:34Z 2022-07-21T01:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-18.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=950.0, HalfAngle=25.0, Time21.5=2022-07-21T03:09Z 2022-07-21T01:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=2.0, Lat.=8.0, Speed=1355.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2022-07-21T03:55Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-07-22T16:38Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -9.8 hr] Duration of disturbance (hr) = 23.5 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 4.8 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=8 (kp)135=9 (kp)180=9 Other Location(s) Impact: Parker Solar Probe with estimated shock arrival time 2022-07-22T07:20Z STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2022-07-22T19:09Z [PE: -6.7 hr] STEREO B with estimated shock arrival time 2022-07-22T21:45Z Mars with estimated shock arrival time 2022-07-25T18:00Z (Glancing Blow) Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220721_023400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Note : While the halo is fast, it is visually diffuse and thus the predicted Kp computed by the simulation may be higher than is merited for this case. Submitted on 2022-07-21T16:23Z by Chris Stubenrauch A Notification with ID 20220721-AL-003 was sent on 2022-07-21T16:46Z A Notification with ID 20220722-AL-001 was sent on 2022-07-22T11:11Z |
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